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It’s a simple formula: respected thespian disability = Oscar. This means that Colin Firth is a shoo-in for his fine turn in The King’s Speech. In a perfect world, though, the award would go to Ryan Reynolds for his anguished performance in the under-seen Buried—he’s the only actor in the film, and he’s surprisingly great.
Best Supporting Actor
If only we could just vote for the entire boyish ensemble of The Social Network. But, with apologies to Andrew Garfield (who’ll probably get nominated and lose to Christian Bale), Armie Hammer’s CGI-assisted work as twins—those impeccably coiffed Winklevii—stands out for its degree of difficulty: playing two distinct characters with the same scarily perfect face.
Best Supporting Actress
We think that the Academy might go with Barbara Hershey’s stage-mom-from-hell in Black Swan, but she’s not even the scariest movie mother of the year. That would be Jacki Weaver in the Aussie standout Animal Kingdom, playing the wily, ruthless matriarch of a black-sheep criminal clan.
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We’ll go geeky here and cite Daft Punk’s groovy, synth-heavy score for TRON: Legacy. Plus, you know that the masked duo would knock a neon-tinged Oscar production number the park. Our geek consolation is that Trent Reznor will get his award as part of a Social Network sweep.
Black Swan deserves this likely win for Portman’s get-up as the badass bird of the title—a costume so iconic, it has already been parodied on 30 Rock and SNL.
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2-1 Co-host James Franco makes repeated jokes about the show running 127 Hours long.
3-2 Justin Timberlake wears glasses and a three-piece suit to prove that he is a Serious Actor.
70-1 Someone actually believes that Justin Timberlake is a Serious Actor.
15-1 Björk rushes the stage during Natalie Portman’s acceptance speech to accuse her of stealing the singer’s swan dress.
300-1 The producers of The Social Network thank Mark Zuckerberg for all his support.
50-1 Inception mysteriously wins Best Picture after the Academy’s 5,000 members all have this really weird dream.
5-2 James Franco pretends to smoke an Oscar statuette like a bong.
25-1 The Academy puts up the wrong photo, confusing Michelle Williams the Blue Valentine actress with Michelle Williams the Destiny’s Child singer.*
*Those odds would be higher, but the Broadcast Film Critics Association actually did this.
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